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Lucci Archive
PART III of an early look at the SEC and some College Basketball This week we are going to take a look at Tennessee’s 2012 schedule Almost a slam-dunk: Georgia State, Akron Very winnable: Troy, Kentucky Tossups: NC State in Atlanta, at Mississippi State, Missouri, at Vanderbilt Not looking good: Florida, at Georgia, Alabama, at South Carolina Best case: 8-4 to about 9-3 Worst case: 5-7 or 6-6 Season summary: I think the key to the Tennessee 2012 season will be from September 15th versus Florida to October 27th at South Carolina. If they can pull off a split during those games and with a schedule that is weaker in November I can really see a nine-win season flirting with 10 victories? It is still the SEC but I think that the Vols are closer this season (with health) in contending in the East. Last year the Vols suffered a lot of lopsided defeats but with better offense they should be more potent in 2012. Some things about Tennessee:
This week we are going to take a look at Georgia’s 2012 schedule Almost a slam-dunk: Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern Very winnable: Vanderbilt, at Kentucky, Mississippi, Georgia Tech Tossups: at Missouri, Tennessee, at South Carolina, Not looking good: Florida, at Auburn Best case: 12-0 to about 9-3 Worst case: 6-6 or 7-5 Season summary: Should be another ten-win season for Head Coach Mark Richt. No reason, with better health at the running position and a stud QB like Murray, the Bulldogs should not be 5-0 when traveling to South Carolina. The amazing thing about the schedule is you see no Alabama, LSU or Arkansas from the SEC West. If they can beat Florida and Auburn I really see a 12-0 season. That October 27th date just might be the SEC East Championship but do not sleep on South Carolina with Lattimore back from the leg injury. The unique part about the Bulldogs schedule is they end the season with non-conference games and their last two SEC contests are against the West. They could know as early as late October if they are playing in the SEC Championship. Some things about Georgia: Next week going to have some College Basketball Numbers that if you are going to fill out a bracket this year you will need! Joey Lucci 2/17/2012 PART II of an early look at the SEC and some College Basketball This week we are going to take a look at Kentucky’s 2012 schedule Almost a slam-dunk: Kent State, WKU, Samford Very winnable: Mississippi State, at Missouri, Vanderbilt Tossups: at Louisville, at Tennessee Not looking good: at Florida, South Carolina, at Arkansas, Georgia Best case: 8-4 to about 9-3 Worst case: 3-9 or 4-8 Season summary: The first thing that I look at is that opening game with instate rival Louisville. If the Wildcats can win that I believe they will be 3-0 when they take off for Florida. From that point to the home game against Georgia will be the toughest part of 2012 and UK will really be tested. A 4-4 mark is not out of the question come late October and at that point you would think Samford is close to a lock, so one more win and Kentucky is bowl eligible. A nice thing about the 2012 schedule is the Wildcats get seven home games and given the recent road struggles that should help. I will call them to end the one-year bowl draught but seriously being a SEC East contender, not this year. Some things about Kentucky: A little College Basketball As of Friday February the 10th we are only 32 days away from the March Madness tournament! With that said there is still a lot of basketball yet to be played and a lot of things that have to be determined. On this past Saturday’s radio show with Spadoraonsports.com I mentioned eight schools that could be this years VCU (Murray State, Creighton, Harvard, Long Beach State, St Mary’s, Wichita St, Nevada and Iona). Lets face it, getting hot at the right time is one of the ingredients in making a long run in the tournament, could also be said this year about the New York Giants. The Giants stood 6-6 after a Green Bay loss in early December and 7-7 just two weeks later. What happened is the running game found itself and the health of the defensive line propelled a nice end to the regular season (15 and 17 point wins) and a great run to Indianapolis! What a Wednesday night for College Basketball, Syracuse gets past rival Georgetown in OT, Duke hits a buzzer-beater to stun North Carolina and Kansas puts the hammer down on Baylor getting the bad taste out of their mouth from the Missouri game. Tuesday we learned that Kentucky is really good destroying Florida and Ohio State can deal with a close game in beating Purdue. In closing I think it is safe to say that the four number #1 seeds are: Talk with you next week while I go over Tennessee and Georgia’s early look at the 2012 football schedule and some more College Basketball. Joey Lucci 2/10/2012 ---end--- Some College Football with a dash of College Basketball With the 2011 season officially over it is time to start talking about 2012. It is amazing how far College Football has come with it almost being a 365-day event. Just this past Wednesday it was already “National Signing Day” (which is my mind starts the new season). What I will be doing in the next couple of months is going over the SEC schedules team-by-team. This will not be my final opinion on the wins and loses of the schools as a lot can happen from today and the start of the season, rather just a quick glance at 2012 in early February. When looking at a team and trying to predict if they are in for a long season or not is based in my mind on a lot of factors but the schedule does play a key part in that. During the off months is when I go over starters lost/returning, recruits, transfers etc. With that said it is still fun to discuss College Football during the “off-season”. This week we are going to take a look at Vanderbilt’s 2012 schedule Almost a slam-dunk: Presbyterian, Massachusetts Very winnable: at Kentucky, at Mississippi, at Wake Forest Tossups: at Northwestern, at Missouri, Tennessee Not looking good: South Carolina, at Georgia, Florida, Auburn Best case: 7-5 to about 8-4 Worst case: 3-9 or 4-8 Season summary: I think that Vanderbilt is headed in the right direction and will call for them to bowl in back-to-back seasons for the first time ever. I can see a 3-4 or 2-5 start but feel the weaker part of the 2012 schedule is in late October and November. Some things about Vanderbilt: In closing I wanted to talk about College Basketball. I will admit that I spend a lot more of my time with College Football but am in the process of switching gears as the basketball season starts to heat up gearing for conference tournaments and March Madness (wait until what I have in store for you about the tournament, coming SOON)! Do not get me wrong, I love everything about basketball but lets face it, like I stated earlier, football is almost a 365 a day thing and College Basketball has about 3-4 months of serious exposure. Even with that there is nothing like a buzzer beater! Below are three teams each that I think are underrated and overrated so far this College Basketball season: UNDERRATED: Joey Lucci 2/3/2012 ---->end College Bowls during the Holidays Part 2 Car Care Bowl in Houston, TX (Reliant Stadium) Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX (Sun Bowl) Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco, CA (AT&T Park) Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN (Liberty Bowl) Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, GA (Georgia Dome) TicketCity Bowl in Dallas, TX (Cotton Bowl) Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL (Raymond James Stadium) Capital One Bowl in Orlando, FL (Florida Citrus Bowl) Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL (EverBank Field) Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA (Rose Bowl) Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ (University of Phoenix Stadium) Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA (Superdome) Orange Bowl in Miami, FL (Sun Life Stadium) Cotton Bowl in Arlington, TX (Cowboys Stadium) Compass Bowl in Birmingham, AL (Legion Field) GoDaddy.com Bowl in Mobile, AL (Ladd-Peebles Stadium) BCS National Championship in New Orleans, LA (Superdome) Wishing you and your family a Happy New Year and Happy Holiday Season! Joey Lucci 12/31/2011-1/09/2012
---------->end College Bowls during the Holidays Part 1 Well it’s the start of the college bowl season. For the schools that are fortunate to land in one of the 35 games, spring football starts early. The extra practices will benefit the younger players and sometimes a solid bowl win can springboard you into the next season. Below I take a look at every bowl game till Friday December 30th. In two weeks I will look at the remaining bowls so check back at that time (remember the Line in all the bowl games is for information purposes only). Let’s get started……........... New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, NM (University Stadium) Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, ID (Bronco Stadium) New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans, LA (Superdome) St Petersburg Bowl (Beef O’ Brady) in St Petersburg, FL (Tropicana Field) Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, CA (Qualcomm Stadium) Las Vegas Bowl in Las Vegas, NV (Sam Boyd Stadium) Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, HI (Aloha Stadium) Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA (Independence Stadium) Little Caesars Bowl in Detroit, MI (Ford Field) Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC (Bank of America Stadium) Military Bowl in Washington, DC (RFK Stadium) Holiday Bowl in San Diego, CA (Qualcomm Stadium) Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando, FL (Florida Citrus Bowl) Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, TX (Alamodome) Armed Forces Bowl in Dallas, TX (Gerald J Ford Stadium) Pinstripe Bowl in Bronx, NY (Yankee Stadium) Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN (LP Field) Insight Bowl in Tempe, AZ (Sun Devil Stadium) Wishing you and your family a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday Season! Joey Lucci 12/16/2011-12/30/11 Again I wanted to talk about what is going on in sports. College bowls are here, college basketball is in full go, NBA starts Christmas day and the NFL is heating up for the playoff push. If you like being in the game and not just watching click on the Wager Web link below and get started winning! I fully believe you will have the best experience at Wager Web as it is second to none, click on the link and see about your unbelievable BONUS just for checking out my blog this holiday season! A look into the Top 10 from the beginning and Army/Navy I wanted to see how well or not so well I did in picking the Top 10 prior to the 2011 season. Remember I predicated the top 10 prior to the bowls. Below to the left is what I had and to the right is the school that actually finished with that ranking (used AP poll). Lucci’s Top 10 (preseason) AP Poll (Final prior to bowls) As you can see picking 6 out of 10 is not that bad. I missed on Oklahoma largely due to the Sooners injuries to its top WR and RB and they ended up #19 at 9-3. Florida State finished #25 at 8-4 with an expected loss to Oklahoma and a hard fought 5-point defeat at Clemson but I didn’t see the Wake Forest and Virginia games. I missed the boat on Texas A&M as they finished unranked at 6-6. The Aggies lost by 1 against Oklahoma State, 4 against Arkansas, 7 in OT against Missouri, 3 in 4OT against Kansas State and 2 against Texas. Needless to say it could have been a whole lot better 2011. Houston finished #20 at 12-1 and if it beats Southern Miss in the CUSA Championship they would have finished higher than #10. Oklahoma State played better than I was thinking in 2011, I never questioned the offense but it was the defense. The Cowboys had a great 2011 and nearly missed playing in the National Title. I was thinking that the inexperienced OL at Stanford would catch up to them but they were an Oregon win away from a National Title. With nothing to play for USC made a statement in 2011 that will spring them into 2012. Arkansas did loss to Alabama and LSU but that was it and I was thinking 8-4. Well that completes another Top 10 prediction season and I can’t wait to do it again in 2012. Army/Navy- I really enjoy watching this game and have the up most respect for both services (all the services for that matter). When the game was moved to the last week of the college football season that made it even more special. I agree 100% on that move. Navy leads the series 55-49-7 and has won nine straight (longest streak in the series by any team). Army comes in this year at 3-8 and Navy at 4-7 so there is no bowl game for either academy. Watching the game I lean toward the Navy due to serving in that branch but have a lot of family and friends in the Army (Navy too). If you have never watched a Army/Navy game do yourself a favor and experience it from the pre-game to the post-game and remember that the players on the field and in the stands will go on to protect our freedom and that deserves some attention. With that said I know what I will be doing come 2:00pm ET on Saturday December 10th, ready to enjoy another Army/Navy game as a proud American. Joey Lucci 12/9/2011 In closing for the 12/9 blog I wanted to talk about what is going on in sports. College bowls are right around the corner, college basketball is in full go, NBA starts Christmas day and the NFL is heating up for the playoff push. If you like being in the game and not just watching click on the Wager Web link below and get started winning! I fully believe you will have the best experience at Wager Web as it is second to none, click on the link and see about your unbelievable BONUS just for checking out my blog this week! CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY MAC Championship at Ford Field in Detroit, MI PAC-12 Championship at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, OR CUSA Championship at Robertson Stadium in Houston, TX SEC Championship at Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA ACC Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC Big 10 Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN It is Bedlam time! Winner in a Bowl, Loser stays home for the holidays Next week I am going to take a look at my Top 10 prior to the start of 2011 and see if I was on or off, also a look into the Army/Navy game. Thanks for reading and visiting Spadoraonsports.com. I am very proud to be a part of the Spadora on Sports Group and very soon big things are going to be happening! Check back soon and often for changes that I know you will enjoy! Joey Lucci 12/2/2011
The way it could play out in College Football I am going to have a little fun with the blog this week as I try to figure out this mess we call the BCS. Lets face it, what should happen in College Football most always does not (on and off the field for that matter). In an earlier blog I pointed out that the bowl games are great but the BCS really needs some kind of playoff system. To not take away from the regular season and give non-AQ teams (schools that do not play in a BCS conference) a chance I am in favor of what I call the “TWO plus four” method. If you expand to an 8 or 16 team playoff system than some of the regular season and conference championships would have less meaning. The method I am proposing would also reward the schools that finished #1 and #2 in the BCS in a “bye round”. The #6 seed would take on the #3 and the #5 against #4 (winners would move on and you would have the BCS Final Four). All games would take place on a neutral site and they would be the traditional spots that make up the BCS bowl games now. Think how great it would be on a New Years Day to watch the BCS Final Four at 4:00pm and 8:00pm and a week later gear up for a “true” National Title (determined on the field and not by a computer). What I did was play out the rest of this season and below is what I came up with (but like I said what should happen in College Football most likely never happens). The current BCS standing: #1 LSU wins their home finale against Arkansas and beats Georgia in the SEC Title game finishing with a 13-0 record and securing the #1 seed. #2 Alabama beats up Auburn and does nothing to drop in the BCS rankings. With their only loss to LSU, at 11-1 they end up with the #2 seed. #3 Arkansas ends up losing their season finally to LSU and finishes 10-2 but the two defeats are at the hands of #1 and #2. Razorbacks get in ending up with the #5 seed. #4 Oklahoma State never rebounds from the Iowa State loss and just like in years past loses in the Bedlam rivalry to Oklahoma. Great season until they were hit by a Cyclone and at 10-2 just misses out to a 10-2 Arkansas squad. #5 Virginia Tech ends the season with solid wins over rival Virginia and gets revenge from an earlier loss against Clemson in the ACC Title game. At 12-1 the Hokies secure the #3 seed. #6 Stanford takes care of Notre Dame and although they are not playing in the Pac-12 Championship get the #4 seed based on the win over USC (Oregon lost to USC). #7 Boise State finishes up 11-1 but any loss for a non-AQ team will come back to haunt. #8 Houston completes a 12-0 regular season with a big win at Tulsa. In the CUSA Title game they smack Southern Miss and at 13-0 get the #6 seed (which would be well deserved). #9 Oklahoma ends the season with a big win over Iowa State and rival Oklahoma State (knocking they from a seed). At 10-2 they are like conference mate OSU getting passed up (Texas Tech and Baylor losses in same season will do that). #10 Oregon hammers instate rival Oregon State and plays in the first Pac-12 Championship game. They win that over Arizona State to end up 11-2 but the loss to USC really hurts and Stanford gets the nod, as their weak Pac-12 Championship opponent did not help them. After what could happen the match ups would be as follows…………….. #6 Houston against #3 Virginia Tech and the winner would face #2 Alabama #5 Arkansas against #4 Stanford and the winner would face #1 LSU #3 Virginia Tech against #2 Alabama #5 Arkansas against #1 LSU #2 Alabama against #1 LSU Maybe it will work out this way and maybe not as there is still a ton of football to be played but no matter what side you are on (playoffs or bowls) something has got to change. Whatever change is made will not be perfect but it could be better than what we have now, a computer telling us who is deserving rather than actually determining it on the field. From my family to yours, Happy Thanksgiving and God Bless Joey Lucci 11/25/2011 ----end SURPRISE SCHOOLS FIVE TEAMS THAT HAVE SURPRISED ME FOR THE GOOD #5) BYU Cougars (7-3)-BYU left the MWC to gain Independent status this year. When I looked at the schedule prior to the season I was thinking 6-6 and just sneaking into a bowl. When I take a look currently at what the Cougars have done it has impressed me. They were one point away from upsetting Texas in Austin and a Friday night loss in Fort Worth from standing 9-1. BYU did loss 54-10 at home against Utah but a lot of schools have that off week once in a while. The Cougars should take care of things this weekend against New Mexico State and with two weeks prior to a trip to the islands, a 9-3 regular season is solid. With a good showing in a bowl they could achieve double-digit wins, do that and it will springboard this squad into 2012. #4) Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (8-3)-This Sun Belt Conference team does not get a lot of attention outside Lafayette, LA (either does the entire conference for that matter). UL came into 2011 with a first year head coach and back-to-back road trips (first game against Oklahoma State). All the Ragin’ Cajuns have done so far is play .500 football on the road and win every game at home by 11 ppg. Lets face it, the Sun Belt will never make a huge splash in college football but just getting to a bowl is a prize in itself. They still have a road trip to Arizona left but no matter what happens Louisiana has really surprised me this year. #3) Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-0)-At the start of 2011 I was thinking this school could be pretty good but 10-0 and ranked #2 in both the AP and BCS poll good? To be honest I was not thinking that. The Cowboys are in prime position to play in the National Title game. They still have a road trip to Iowa State and of course Bedlam with Oklahoma but they control their own destiny. The one thing that keeps jumping out at me when I look at what OSU has done so far is the points. They have put up 59+ in half their games including 60+ three times and a 70 spot on Kansas, WOW! All I hear is that the Cowboys can’t play defense but how much defense do you need to play when you are scoring like they do? #4) Vanderbilt Commodores (5-5)-Almost every year you would think that Vanderbilt finishes at the bottom of the SEC and not think twice about it. This year the Commodores are raising some eyebrows (mine included). They did get off to a 3-0 start and have had their expected struggles but in my mind positioned itself for a bowl after a 38-8 hammering of Kentucky. With a first year head coach it was supposed to be another losing year, right? Vanderbilt has road trips to Tennessee and Wake Forest left and I believe they can beat both. With the high academic standards at Vanderbilt they sometimes miss out on the athletes other SEC schools get. This year not only is Vanderbilt All-Academic but they are making teams notice its play on the field as well. #5) Virginia Cavaliers (7-3)-Virginia is 7-3, is that a misprint? Head Coach Mike London has done a tremendous job in 2011. The Cavaliers started an expected 2-0 but are riding a three-game winning streak including a Miami, FL road win on a Thursday Night. Watch out for this squad as it travels to Florida State and closes out at home against rival Virginia Tech. Welcome back to a bowl game, Virginia, and you make my #1 surprise team for the good! FIVE TEAMS THAT HAVE SURPRISED ME FOR THE BAD #5) USF Bulls (5-4)-At the start of the year I was thinking that USF would get to their first BCS bowl (winning the Big East). They have been a disappointment-escaping week one at Notre Dame and have dropped four straight conference games before a win at the Carrier Dome. With three straight home games to end 2011 they will get to a bowl but I feel this could have been a special season. #4) Navy Midshipmen (4-6)-Navy has had some close games that could have really changed their season. They lost at South Carolina, in OT against rival Air Force, at Rutgers and against East Carolina by a combined eight points! Win half of those games and they are 6-4 and were I was thinking at the start of 2011. I would love to see Navy in a bowl and all that stands in the way is a road trip to San Jose State and the traditional regular season finally against Army. With two straight wins heading into this weekend they seem to be heading in the right direction but still I would have guessed more wins at this point at the beginning of the year. #3) Ohio State Buckeyes (6-4)-I understand that the head coach was let go, a bunch of players were suspended and there should have been an obvious drop off. Still this squad was very talented even with the distractions. Ohio State has beat a 1-9 Akron squad, another MAC squad in Toledo, 2-9 Colorado, a Illinois team that has lost four straight, a Wisconsin team on a “Hail Mary” and 1-9 Indiana. Other than the Wisconsin game they have not impressed me at all. With a home game against Penn State and a road trip to the “Big House”, a 6-6 mark is not out of the question. Two weeks ago the Buckeyes controlled their own destiny for a Big Ten Championship, now it looks like a below average bowl game (the amazing thing is that “Buckeye Fan” will still give excuse after excuse why this team failed to meet expectations in 2011). I will not give excuses just feel they under achieved even with all the off-field problems. #2) Maryland Terrapins (2-8)-James Franklin was the OC in 2010 at Maryland under Ralph Friedgen (Franklin is now HC at Vanderbilt, see above). Not sure why Terp fan wanted Ralph out, 9-4 I guess wasn’t good enough. When Randy Edsall got the job I was thinking with QB Danny O’Brien and some talent this was a 6-6 or even 7-5 squad, pretty good for a first year head coach (did have past experience which led me to believe he could do better than normal first year coaches). Well sitting at 2-8 and nothing but road games left has Maryland possibly facing another ten-loss season. Some times you get what you ask for and Trep fan did, but myself included wasn’t thinking this bad. #1) Texas A&M Aggies (5-5)-I had such big aspirations for this school heading into 2011, I even went out to say they could be a dark-horse for the National Title. Things started out as planned but the one point loss at Kyle Field to Oklahoma State, followed up by another devastating defeat by Arkansas derailed this team (both games had the lead late). A&M did bounce back and win three straight but since have dropped three straight (two games in OT). This season could have been so much more and although I can’t see a loss to Kansas this weekend, the bowl they end up playing in will be a disappointment and Aggie fan might be thinking it is times up for Mike Sherman. Joey Lucci 11/18/2011 ---end A look into the undefeated teams left……………………………… #2/2 Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big 12, 9-0) – The Cowboys escaped Kansas State at Boone Pickens last week (Wildcats had a first and goal at the OSU5 and fired incomplete three times, the 3rd down toss came as time expired). The next two games are on the road playing in Lubbock against Texas Tech and a scrappy Iowa State squad in Ames. With the pressure of #2 in the BCS poll OSU controls its own destiny and if they take care of things on the road, Oklahoma comes to town for Bedlam. The Sooners are sitting at #6 in the BCS and likely come in at 10-1 but without their top receiver are at a disadvantage. Nonetheless Bedlam will be crazy especially with a BCS Title bid on the line (remember no Big 12 Championship game this year). #3/4 Stanford Cardinal (Pac 12, 9-0) – The Cardinal are just as hot if not the hottest school in the country. They stand at 9-0 with the average win by 32 ppg. They did have to go 3OT’s to beat USC but that was on the road and their remaining regular season games are all at home. The biggest game of the weekend will be when the Ducks land in Stanford Stadium. Oregon looks pretty good sitting at 8-1, #7 in the BCS and would like nothing more than to spoil Luck & Co chances at a National Title shot. Could Oregon sneak into the BCS Championship with a win (assuming they run the table and only loss is to #1 LSU, know that would be a great rematch from week one!)? If Stanford gets past the Ducks the competition does go down a bit but they still will carry a large bull’s-eye. #5/5 Boise State Broncos (MWC, 8-0) – Boise State took care of business in “Sin City” after a sub par first half performance (only lead 21-14 at halftime). TCU heads to the blue turf this weekend in what looks like the Broncos toughest remaining test for perfection. Can the Frogs do something that has not happened since 2005, win at Broncos Stadium? If so the BCS would not mind and that would make Houston Cougar fans very happy. The likely scenario is that Boise State beats TCU and hammers San Diego State on the road; Wyoming at home and I don’t even want to think about what is going to happen in the regular season finale hosting winless New Mexico (could be as much as a 50+ point favorite, last time that happened was in 2003). With that said it looks again that Boise will be the bridesmaid and not the bride!
#11//11 Houston Cougars (CUSA, 9-0) – The Cougars are 9-0 for the first time in school history and are lead by QB Case Keenum who has broke pretty much every single school and NCAA passing record. The biggest difference between the remaining undefeated teams and Houston is that the Cougars have nowhere near the defense but offensively can put up points on any drive. Just like Boise they do not face the same competition as the BCS conference schools on a weekly basis. Still it is impressive that over the last 6 games they are beating opponents on average 59-20. With a road trip to Tulane (should be over at halftime) and Keenum’s last game at Robertson Stadium against SMU in the winnable category, perfection comes down to a road trip at Tulsa. The CUSA West crown is also at stake and a trip to the CUSA Championship game. Looks like 13-0 but with Boise finishing undefeated it will be very tough to play in a BCS bowl, so the Liberty Bowl will get a rare undefeated school and a nice match up. The best one-loss teams left (in order of strongest)………………… #6/7 Oregon Ducks (Pac-12, 8-1) – Ducks are kind of like the Tide as they dropped the season opener to #1 LSU, run the table and is there a rematch of the Arlington game? #7/6 Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12, 8-1) – I feel bad for WR Broyles (hate to see anyone hurt especially a kid of this talent), Sooners really looking forward to Bedlam but need Cowboys to enter 11-0 #8/8 Arkansas Razorbacks (SEC, 8-1) – Arkansas should be able to take care of things till November 25th, that decides a BCS bowl and the Razorbacks will have Tide fan watching #9/9 Clemson Tigers (ACC, 8-1) – OK you lost to Georgia Tech but there is still a lot to play for, 12-1 with a ACC Title and a trip to a BCS Bowl will do just fine for Tiger fan #10/10 Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC, 8-1) – Is there a rematch in store in the ACC Title game with Clemson? I would like to see it but first things first 3 ACC opponents left #25/22 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (CUSA, 8-1) – Coach Larry Fedora has done a wonderful job overcoming adversity and if all goes like I see it, 11-1 Southern Miss against 12-0 Houston makes a really great CUSA Championship game #23/23 Cincinnati Bearcats (Big East, 7-1) – HC Butch Jones has quietly put his Bearcats in a nice position, WV is a mess and the remaining Big East schedule is very doable for a 11-1 finish and BCS trip #12/12 Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten, 8-1) – Why am I not sold on Penn St, that’s right they still have Nebraska, at Ohio State and at Wisconsin left, 8-4 but a nice start ----end Preview of ranked against ranked for week #9 in college football #11 Oklahoma at #12 Kansas State- The Sooners are coming off a rare loss at the hands off Texas Tech. HC Bob Stoops will certainly have his teams’ focus this week as they travel to undefeated Kansas State. I bet (including myself) that no one would have guessed at the beginning of the year Kansas State would be the school coming in undefeated (and that is why college football is so exciting week in and week out). I love what HC Bill Snyder is doing at Kansas State. The Wildcats are built around their defense but since the bye week have scored an average of 38 ppg. If they average that the remainder of 2011, it will be very hard for anyone to stop this team. Oklahoma will be the toughest opponent that Kansas State will face so far and coming off a loss only makes matters worst for the Wildcats. In the Sooners last five losses the following week they are 5-0 with an average win by 35 ppg! Both schools control their destiny for a Big 12 Championship (remember no title game to close out year) but Kansas St may be thinking about bigger things as they come in #8 in the BCS. Oklahoma basically was eliminated from the National Title picture but with a win will still keep a BCS bowl alive. If Kansas State can beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State on the road, Texas A&M and on the road at Texas than only Iowa State stands in the way of an unblemished season but I will call for Oklahoma to end those talks here with their 70-17-4 all-time mark against Kansas State including four straight, all by double-digits. SCORE Oklahoma-37 Kansas State-24 #9 Michigan State at #13 Nebraska- Last week Michigan State overcame a 14-0 deficit and beat Wisconsin on a “Hail Mary” as time expired in a thrilling home win. HC Mark Dantonio always seems to be pressing the right buttons at the right time with this Spartan squad. Nebraska struggled with that same Wisconsin team just four weeks ago and if you compare that common opponent than the Spartans are a “slam-dunk”. This is basically for the Big Ten Legends Division as I feel the winner will go on to play in the Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Michigan State is coming off an emotional win at home over Wisconsin and it will be tough to bring that on the road, especially in Lincoln were the Cornhuskers are 60-16 since 2001 riding a seven game winning streak (average win by 18 ppg). Michigan State has never beat Nebraska in school history (0-5) but the last meeting was in the 2003 Alamo Bowl. The Spartans are on a 17-3 run but the three losses are all away from East Lansing with the average score 39-9! Nebraska has dropped at least 34 points in their six wins but Michigan State will be the best defense they face. I will admit this game is right down the middle and I really cannot come up with a reason why or why not one team wins and one loses so I am going with the home team (but not confident). SCORE Nebraska-28 Michigan State-27 #4 Stanford at #20 USC- Stanford is coming off yet another “easy” victory. The Cardinal comes into this road game 7-0 and #6 in the BCS standings. They are in position for a great season and a possible BCS Title shot. Stanford has never trailed at any part during this season and the closest anyone has come to beating them was by 27 points (at Arizona). USC is off a very impressive road trip to South Bend and obviously was not looking ahead. The Trojans are 52-6 since 2002 at the Coliseum but two of those losses have come at the hands of Stanford. Stanford is 3-1 the last four years against USC including the 2007 win where they shocked the #2 Trojans 24-23 (Vegas had USC as a 41-point favorite). USC is 4-0 this season at home and really have just been so-so in front of their home crowd but of all the games at the Coliseum in 2011 this one was highlighted. The QB battle will be interesting with Heisman favorite Andrew Luck against Matt Barkley. Stanford has fared well on the road recently and is on a 9-1 run with their only loss in Eugene. An interesting note about Stanford this year is that despite the 7-0 start, six schools they faced currently have a losing record (seven teams combined 20-30 mark, 40%). The remaining schedule features four schools with current winning records (five teams left have a 22-13 mark, 63%). I think that with the competition stepping up, the fact Stanford has not faced really any adversity (just ask Wisconsin) and USC flying under the radar, the Cardinal get beat this week. SCORE USC-31 Stanford-28
Ranked teams that should be on UPSET ALERT for week #9 in college football Below is a list of ranked teams playing unranked opponents that I feel could be “UPSET” this weekend (in order of most likely to least). #1 LSU, #2 Alabama, #5 Boise State and #24 Cincinnati all have byes. I told myself that I would not mention it in this week’s blog but I cannot wait till November 5th when #1 LSU travels to #2 Alabama (ok that is all until next week). #12 Wisconsin at Ohio State- Wisconsin was eliminated from the national title picture with the loss last week to Michigan State. They quickly led 14-0 but trailed 31-17 mid fourth-quarter. The Badgers tied things up only to have a “Hail Mary” answered by the Spartans (if you have not seen the play, watch it!). UW is just 1-3 the last four years the game after their first loss of the season (only win last year against a weak Minnesota squad). This group really cannot dwell too much on the game because Ohio State is off a bye and it is homecoming. I did peg the Badgers #3 (when the season started) but said that their season will be defined by the back-to-back road games at MSU and OSU. If they let their emotions get the best of them the one loss will turn into two but if they win it is very likely they could be standing 11-1 representing the Big Ten Leaders Division in a rematch with Sparty and company. #14 South Carolina at Tennessee- South Carolina did respond well after suffering a home loss against Auburn (first of the season) but take on a Tennessee team that is in desperate need for an SEC win (0-4 in conference play). The Gamecocks have kicked their starting QB Garcia off the team and lost arguably the NCAA’s best RB prior to the bye at Mississippi State. There is still talent but South Carolina is 1-14 all-time in Knoxville including back-to-back losing trips by 11 ppg and how will they respond with the injury to their star? HC Steve Spurrier has never finished below .500 at South Carolina but has never lost any fewer than five games in a season as well. I can see a downward spiral to end 2011 as after Tennessee they have a tough road trip to Arkansas and home games against Florida and Clemson left.
#22 Georgia versus Florida- This game is played in Jacksonville and is billed as the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”. Florida is coming off a bye and I am going to assume they will be in better health. The Gators did start 4-0 but have dropped three straight (can you blame them; Alabama, at LSU and at Auburn). Georgia is also coming off a bye and has been the opposite of the Gators losing two straight to open the season but since have won five in a row. They were a “scoop and score” on a blocked punt away from a loss on homecoming against Vanderbilt prior to the bye. The Bulldogs have struggled with the Gators posting just a 3-18 mark since 1990 including three straight losses by 22 ppg. Georgia still has the SEC East in its sights but a loss against Florida and the division is wide-open. #25 West Virginia at Rutgers- The Mountaineers were a no-show playing with legitimate revenge in the Carrier Dome last week. QB Geno Smith was harassed all night and at one point WV trailed 42-16. HC Dana Holgorsen has installed a fast pace moving offense in Morgantown but at times this season WV has sputtered. On the road this year they have struggled (lead Maryland big but allowed the Terps back in and the SU game). The Big East is wide-open and Rutgers could be 3-0 in the conference and for what its worth 7-0 on the season (both losses by just two points each). WV better not overlook the Scarlet Knights who would like nothing more than to position itself for a Big East crown and snap a 16-game losing streak to WV here. #6 Clemson at Georgia Tech- The Tigers just keep on rolling and rolling. They have dumped 50+ on its last two opponents and stand at 8-0 with an average win 41-25. The thing that scares me is the defense and two weeks ago should have lost at Maryland (if the punter kicked away from sensational freshman Sammy Watkins). Quick, other than Mr. Watkins can you name two other Tigers (did not think so)? Clemson is #5 in the BCS standings and has a legitimate chance for a National Title spot. Georgia Tech after back-to-back losses seems to be an after thought but still has a very difficult option offense to prep for and at any time the Yellow Jackets are talented enough to take it to the house. If the Tigers begin their bye week early it could be bye-bye in the national title picture. #19 Texas Tech hosting Iowa State- Texas Tech got the nation’s attention with their upset of Oklahoma last week (Sooners first home loss since 2005 and first home conference loss since 2001). The Red Raiders at one point led 31-7! The problem that Tech faces is that everyone is patting them on the back, talking about what a great win and that might derail their focus on lowly Iowa State. The Cyclones are 3-4 after opening 3-0 but believe me HC Paul Rhoads will have his alma mater ready. Last season Iowa State beat Texas in Austin with the Longhorns coming off a big win over #5 Nebraska. The Red Raiders could be in the right place but at the wrong time in Lubbock. Joey Lucci 10/28/2011
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A LOOK INTO THE BCS STANDINGS The first official BCS Standings came out this past week. What a year so far as it has flown by (just like every season). There is a couple things we know at this point, the two schools that will play in the National Title are among the 25 listed in the BCS Standings and there is a lot of football to be played to determine that. Just like I did with the remaining undefeated teams last week I will try to play out the season and come up with a possible BCS Championship match up. Lets take a look into the future with the BCS. 1 LSU (current 7-0, ends up 11-1) The good news is that the Tigers most likely get an at-large berth in a BCS bowl but the bad news is they likely lose in Tuscaloosa on November 5th. Playing in the SEC is tough enough but also in the same division as Alabama makes it even more difficult. With one loss and no chance to play for the SEC Championship a very talented squad watches the National Title game (but beat Alabama and New Orleans is an even bigger party!). Joey Lucci’s Top 10 National Title Match Up Predictions #1 Alabama versus Oklahoma Joey Lucci 10/21/2011
----END---- 13 schools undefeated at mid-season and what may lie ahead Finishing the season undefeated is defiantly an accomplishment. Not only do you have to be a dominant team but a little luck goes a long way. College football is a game of great emotion and to bring that kind of intensity week in and week out is difficult in itself. In the last nine seasons only three times has there been more than two schools undefeated when it was all said and done. The last two years have seen two schools do it in each as in 2009 Alabama and Boise State went 14-0 while in 2010 Auburn finished 14-0 and TCU 13-0. In 2003 and 2007 no school went unbeaten but in 2004 there were three (Utah at 12-0 and USC and Auburn at 13-0). This year looks like the 2004 season as far as teams ending up unblemished but the year is far from over and below I take a look at what may lie ahead and which (if any) schools escape 2011 undefeated! The undefeated scale is ranked from 1-10 with a 10 mark very highly to finish 2011 undefeated and a 1 very unlikely. #1 LSU Tigers, SEC (6-0) #2 Alabama Crimson Tide, SEC (6-0) #3 Oklahoma Sooners, Big 12 (5-0)
#4 Wisconsin Badgers, Big Ten (6-0) #5 Boise State Broncos, MWC (5-0) #6 Oklahoma State Cowboys, Big 12 (5-0) #7 Stanford Cardinal, Pac-12 (5-0) #8 Clemson Tigers, ACC (6-0)
#11 Michigan Wolverines, Big Ten (6-0) #12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, ACC (6-0) #16 Illinois Fighting Illini, Big Ten (6-0) #17 Kansas State Wildcats, Big 12 (5-0) #25 Houston Cougars, C-USA (6-0) Joey Lucci 10/14/2011
A LOOK INTO THE TOP 25 Every Sunday after the College Football week has concluded the NCAA football rankings come out. I really enjoy them because we get to see what schools did or did not do to warrant being ranked too high/low and not being ranked at all (or falling from the rankings). We are getting close to the halfway point of the 2011 season and I will try and take a look into the crystal ball and see what may lie ahead (I used the AP Top 25). #1 LSU (5-0) - Toughest games left; at Alabama, Arkansas Games left against current AP Top 25; 4 Pretty much slam-dunk; WKU, at Mississippi #2 Alabama (5-0) - Toughest games left; LSU, at Auburn Games left against current AP Top 25; 2 Pretty much slam-dunk; Vanderbilt, at Mississippi, at Mississippi State, Georgia Southern #3 Oklahoma (4-0) - Toughest games left; Texas, Texas A&M, at Oklahoma State Games left against current AP Top 25; 5 Pretty much slam-dunk; at Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State #4 Wisconsin (5-0) - Toughest games left; at Michigan State, at Ohio State, at Illinois Games left against current AP Top 25; 1 Pretty much slam-dunk; Indiana, Purdue, at Minnesota #5 Boise State (4-0) - Toughest games left; Air Force, TCU Games left against current AP Top 25; 0 Pretty much slam-dunk; at Fresno State, at Colorado State, at UNLV, at San Diego State, Wyoming, New Mexico #6 Oklahoma State (4-0) - Toughest games left; at Texas, Oklahoma Games left against current AP Top 25; 4 Pretty much slam-dunk; Kansas, at Texas Tech, at Iowa State #7 Stanford (4-0) - Toughest games left; at USC, Oregon, Notre Dame Games left against current AP Top 25; 1 Pretty much slam-dunk; Colorado, at Washington State #8 Clemson (5-0) - Toughest games left; at Georgia Tech, at South Carolina Games left against current AP Top 25; 2 Pretty much slam-dunk; Boston College, Wake Forest #9 Oregon (3-1) - Toughest games left; Arizona State, at Stanford, USC Games left against current AP Top 25; 2 Pretty much slam-dunk; at Colorado, Washington State #10 Arkansas (4-1) - Toughest games left; South Carolina, at LSU Games left against current AP Top 25; 3 Pretty much slam-dunk; at Mississippi, at Vanderbilt #11 Texas (4-0) - Toughest games left; Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, at Texas A&M, at Baylor Games left against current AP Top 25; 5 Pretty much slam-dunk; Kansas #12 Michigan (5-0) - Toughest games left; at Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State Games left against current AP Top 25; 2 Pretty much slam-dunk; Purdue #13 Georgia Tech (5-0) - Toughest games left; at Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Games left against current AP Top 25; 2 Pretty much slam-dunk; Maryland, at Duke #14 Nebraska (4-1) - Toughest games left; Ohio State, Michigan State, at Penn State, at Michigan Games left against current AP Top 25; 1 Pretty much slam-dunk; at Minnesota #15 Auburn (4-1) - Toughest games left; at Arkansas, Florida, at LSU, at Georgia, Alabama Games left against current AP Top 25; 4 Pretty much slam-dunk; Mississippi, Samford #16 West Virginia (4-1) - Toughest games left; at Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, at USF Games left against current AP Top 25; None Pretty much slam-dunk; at Rutgers, Louisville #17 Florida (4-1) - Toughest games left; at LSU, at Auburn, Georgia, at South Carolina, Florida State Games left against current AP Top 25; 4 Pretty much slam-dunk; Vanderbilt, Furman #18 South Carolina (4-1) - Toughest games left; at Arkansas, Florida, Clemson Games left against current AP Top 25; 3 Pretty much slam-dunk; Kentucky, The Citadel #19 Illinois (5-0) - Toughest games left; Ohio State, at Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin Games left against current AP Top 25; 2 Pretty much slam-dunk; at Indiana, at Minnesota #20 Kansas State (4-0) - Toughest games left; Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, at Texas Games left against current AP Top 25; 4 Pretty much slam-dunk; at Kansas, Iowa State #21 Virginia Tech (4-1) - Toughest games left; Miami, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Games left against current AP Top 25; 1 Pretty much slam-dunk; Boston College, at Duke #22 Arizona State (4-1) - Toughest games left; at Oregon, at UCLA, California Games left against current AP Top 25; 1 Pretty much slam-dunk; Colorado, at Washington State #23 Florida State (2-2) - Toughest games left; Miami, Florida Games left against current AP Top 25; 1 Pretty much slam-dunk; at Duke, Maryland, at Boston College #24 Texas A&M (2-2) - Toughest games left; Baylor, at Oklahoma, at Kansas State, Texas Games left against current AP Top 25; 4 Pretty much slam-dunk; at Iowa State, Kansas #25 Baylor (3-1) - Toughest games left; at Texas A&M, at Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Games left against current AP Top 25; 4 Pretty much slam-dunk; Iowa State, at Kansas Joey Lucci 10/7/2011 ---- end COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK FOUR Wow, has the college football season flown by! Just like the Green Day song “Wake me up when September ends” the month has come and gone. The college football season is like a small child on Christmas morning, you are excited about it all year and that builds as the day approaches but once it gets here it is never long enough. The bad news is that a month of the season has gone bye but the good news is that October looks to be just as good, if not better. We learned that Auburn will not repeat as National Champs. They are 3-1 with a very fortunate win against Utah St but already have a loss and more to come with three road SEC games in October (at South Carolina, Arkansas and LSU)….We learned the Alabama defense is for real as they have allowed just 8 ppg including a tough road trip to Penn St and last weeks hammering of Arkansas….We learned that Baylor is for real. The Bears are ranked #15 with a big TCU win and will have the Big 12 Defensive Coordinators not sleeping much as they try to design ways to stop QB Robert Griffin, lets see if they can keep it up with tough road games at Kyle Filed and Boone Pickens Stadium….We learned Boise St most likely will be 12-0 as their biggest test of the season (Georgia) was graded a A+….We leaned Clemson at 4-0 and ranked #13 with back-to-back wins over Auburn and Florida St may have come into the season under valued. They have three huge road tests in October (at Virginia Tech, Maryland and Georgia Tech), win those and not just ACC Title but maybe start thinking “darkhorse” National Title….We learned Florida at 4-0 and ranked #12 can’t be taken lightly. Speed kills and that is what you deal with every time you face the Gators. The SEC October schedule (Alabama, at LSU, at Auburn and Georgia) will do two things, keep us taking about Florida or saying overrated….We learned after two straight losses that Florida St might be overrated coming into the season at #6….We leaned Georgia Tech is a pretty good football team in the post Nesbitt era (#21 and 4-0). This might surprise you but in the first three games the Yellow Jackets scored a TD their FIRST PLAY FROM SCRIMMAGE IN EACH GAME! The ACC October schedule does look manageable but the back-to-back road games against Virginia and Miami will be a test….We learned so far that I told you so about the Houston Cougars who stand 5-0 for the first time since 1990 (hope I don’t eat crow)….We learned that Illinois at 4-0 and ranked #24 could be the talk of the Big Ten. Lets see what happens hosting Ohio St and traveling to Penn St but I like the way the schedule shapes up in October….We learned Iowa St may be 3-0 but to you get the feeling it might be a long October starting off with Texas and at Baylor….We learned legendary Head Coach Bill Snyder still has it, Kansas St stands at 3-0….We learned even with suspended QB Jordan Jefferson that the LSU Tigers are just as good (if not better) with Jarrett Lee under center. At 4-0 and #1 in the country the October schedule looks very good for 8-0 and #1 come the end of October….We learned Maryland’s uniforms might be the ugliest in all of college football….We learned hands down that Memphis is the worst school in the FBS….We learned that the Miami Hurricanes can overcome some adversity with the Ohio St win but you can’t loss to Kansas St the following week (well college football is a game of emotion)….We learned that Michigan’s Denard Robinson is really good, Coach Hoke, let him run! The Wolverines at 4-0 and #19 look to make a strong push in Big Ten play, just hope they don’t meltdown like the last two years (2009 started 4-0 and finished 5-7, 2010 started 5-0 and finished 7-6)….We learned even bringing in a new head coach Minnesota still finds a way to lose to a FCS school (lost 37-24 to North Dakota St)….We learned that starting 1-3 is not what the Ole Miss faithful wanted and Head Coach Houston Nutt better enjoy October because it will be his last in Oxford….We learned Navy is still running the option well and should have beat South Carolina….We learned that Nebraska is 4-0 and #8 in the nation but now travels to Madison and has their very first Big Ten Conference home game with Ohio St after (plus Michigan St does come to town later). Not sure if they are ranked in Top 10 after those….We learned that New Mexico is looking forward to college basketball starting. Head Coach Mike Locksley is 2-26 with the Lobos, am I the only one that thinks that is really bad!....We learned that North Carolina can survive without Butch Davis starting the year 3-1 but can they keep it up with Miami coming to town and a road trip to Clemson….We learned that Northwestern really misses QB Dan Persa and they are a much better squad with him in the lineup….We learned that Notre Dame is a turnover machine and loves to give early season gifts, especially to USF and Michigan. The Irish did end September on a positive note and October should be much more enjoyable to watch for Irish fans if they cut down on the turnovers….We learned Ohio St is playing pretty well despite the off season problems. Most expected the Miami loss and the October schedule is rough but this team is still talented and looks like a 8-4 year….We learned #2 Oklahoma still hasn’t been that challenged and I am sticking to want I said in the summer, 12-0 and playing in the National Title Game….We learned that Oklahoma St at #7 is for real and after the win against Texas A&M has the tools (especially on offense with QB Brandon Weeden leading the way) to make the Bedlam matchup with Oklahoma the biggest ever….We learned that Oregon has responded very well after falling to the #1 team (LSU #4 at time) and after hammering their next three opponents (including Pac-12 Arizona) on average 60-19 look to continue with a nice October….We learned that Oregon St Head Coach Mike Riley will be out of a job after 2011 (Beavers lost to FCS Sacramento St to open season). OSU is 0-3 and I really can’t see a win in October….We learned that South Carolina at #10 and 4-0 is answering a lot of questions. The SEC schedule does come into play in October but two games are at home and they get a bye prior to Tennessee. Looks like QB Stephen Garcia has put the bad past behind and I am still sticking with the Gamecocks to win the SEC East….We learned that Stanford has continued its winning ways from 2010 and although not surprised at 3-0 and ranked #6 it is the end of 2011 that I would be worried about if I were a Cardinal fan….We learned that Syracuse is the luckiest team in America with a OT win after trailing by 15 in the fourth quarter against Wake Forest and how about the game with Toledo (how can you replay something and still get it wrong?). With all that said they still have positioned themselves for a bowl, no way they win the Big East….We learned that TCU can be beat and I bet you were just like me after week one, how can a Frog defense allow 50 points to anyone. The last three weeks have been a lot better and Head Coach Gary Patterson is continuing his masterful job in Fort Worth….We learned that Temple is a really good football team that no one is talking about. They just smacked Maryland and led Penn St most of the game. Former Head Coach Al Golden underachieved but can Steve Addazio make most of the Owl talent….We learned that Texas is 3-0 and ranked #17 proving that 2010 was just a fluke. This month brings in Oklahoma and Oklahoma St so we will see if the younger McCoy can be like big brother….We learned that Texas A&M lost to Oklahoma St 30-29 but still is the best team Head Coach Mike Sherman has had in his tenure. If the Aggies can beat SEC rival Arkansas it could springboard into a nice October. Do you get the feeling the Big 12 heads are a little upset with A&M and I wonder which way they are rioting when a conference game comes around in 2011 (A&M heading to SEC next year)….We learned that Tulsa had the toughest non-conference schedule in the country facing #1 Oklahoma, #8 Oklahoma St and #4 Boise St. The Hurricane are 1-3 but also have one of the toughest QB’s (GJ Kinne) and will have a great October with a weaker CUSA slate….We learned that UCF should be 4-0 but can’t hang onto the ball. Lets see they are 2-2 but outscoring opponents on average 30-11 and outgaining them 420-190?….We learned that UCLA with the win over Oregon St may have saved Head Coach Rick Neuheisal’s job for now but October with be the month that a lot of questions will be answered….We learned that the USF Bulls are gearing up for a October that has the level of competition going way up after a soft non-conference slate and a fortunate win at Notre Dame (outscored other three cupcakes an average 53-16). I am still sticking with the Bulls to win the Big East and go to their first BSC bowl but the loss to Pitt to open conference play has them behind the “eight-all”….We learned that Vanderbilt fans were getting very excited at 3-0 but the loss to South Carolina only will begin a losing streak, sorry Commodore fan but it is what it is….We learned that Virginia Tech has all the tools to do special things in 2011. At 4-0 and #11 in the nation this team gets the harder ACC matchups in October at home (Clemson and Miami) and a Bud Foster defense is nothing an offense wants to see….We learned that Washington at 3-1 has a pretty good QB. In fact I will say this “Locker who” when Kevin Prince is under center….We learned that the WKU Hilltoppers are still bad since their move up and I still can’t figure out what the mascot is (only other mascot that is worse is at Stanford)….We learned that the Wisconsin Badgers at 4-0 and ranked #7 are loving new QB Russell Wilson. The Badgers do have Nebraska and road trips to Michigan St and Ohio St, so October will tell us an awful lot about this team. I did put the Badgers are #3 in my Top 10 and got a lot of “heat” from it but hopefully they don’t disappoint me. Joey Lucci 9/30/2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK FOUR In college football we see the unthinkable almost on a weekly basis. The passion from the fans mixed with the emotion of the coaches to the athletic ability of players has all of us at the edge of your seats. Plus every week is a way to start over and maybe put that loss behind or build on a winning streak. Below are some games that excite me (but I pretty much will watch any game) about week four and if anything like the past, expect the unexpected……………………………… Colorado at Ohio State- After a couple tough losses for Colorado they got a big win over instate rival Colorado State. Ohio State suffered a whipping in Miami and the Buckeyes are out of the rankings for the first time in 7 years. Colorado has their Pac-12 opener on deck and Ohio St has not dropped two straight since ’04! I feel that the Buffaloes are in a bad situation with a very angry Ohio State squad; the Buckeyes will roll it up in the “Horseshoe” and shut up a lot of critics.
Temple at Maryland- Can not wait to see what uniforms the Terrapins come out in! On the football side the Owls put a nice fight up against Penn St but look for Maryland QB Danny O’Brien to guide a easier than expected win with just Towson on deck and Temple having MAC rival Toledo next (potential MAC Championship preview). Joey Lucci 9/23/2011
Joey Lucci’s Week Three “Six-Pack” Michigan State at Notre Dame- What is going on with the Irish? Standing at 0-2 after yet another loss in which they had the yard edge again (ND has had 500+ yards of offense in each of their first two games; USF and Michigan). I will admit they could be standing 2-0 and everything would be right in South Bend but the fact is they are the most over rated team in the country (kind of like the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL) and somehow always find a way to lose. The result of this game for ND will be the same but the difference is that Michigan State will have the yard edge and most likely will not make it close. The Spartans are for real ranked #15. Their schedule has not been as tough as the Irish but they are hammering the weaker foe and look good doing it (outscored teams on season 72-6!). Notre Dame could be 0-4 to start and Michigan State 4-0 and that would surprise many. Texas at UCLA- Texas is 2-0 and ranked #24 in the country but am I the only one that finds the two wins shaky? They played a bad first half against Rice in the opener and were very fortunate to escape BYU last week (and both games were at home!). The QB situation is a mess for the Longhorns and they better find a rusher fast (play #1 OU on October 8th). UCLA did surprise me last week only beating San Jose State by ten but could of won in week one against Houston. The Bruins stand at 1-1 and are a lot more talented then they have showed so far. The Bruins manhandled the Longhorns last season and the word “revenge” might come to mind but look for a home win by UCLA. Syracuse at USC- The Orange have put themselves in a great position to go bowling in back-to-back years for the first time since 1998 and 1999. SU showed the ability to comeback in week one against Wake Forest (won in OT after trailing by 15 in second half) and I really do not put a lot of stock in the Rhode Island game last week. The Trojans have had two “nothing special” wins and sometimes I feel that the college football nation forgets about them serving the suspension. SU did go 5-1 on the road last year but this is a very difficult game traveling across the country to a team looking to get back to the dominance it had just a short while ago. The winner does start 3-0 and for SU that could mean a possible 6-0 start to 2011! Oklahoma at Florida State- There will be a lot of questions answered after this game is done. This is what College Football is all about, if you are not excited for this match up you might want to check your pulse! #1 OU rolls into Tallahassee off a bye and in week one destroyed Tulsa. The Sooners in my opinion are the most complete team in the country and look almost “unstoppable”. Florida St comes in at #5 and is thinking pure REVENGE! OU whipped FSU last season 47-17 and it was not even that close. Prior to the season I said that the Seminoles would loss one game and this was it (still sticking with that). OU does play better at home but should take care of things in the sunshine state, although the score should be closer then 2010’s version. The loser of this game could be eliminated from the early National Title picture. Ohio State at Miami, FL- The IneligiBOWL! #17 Ohio St will try to start 3-0 after the “MAC season”. After the shutout of Akron they struggled with Toledo. The Buckeyes do receive help from served suspensions but are on the road for the first time with a young QB as well as one that has not logged a lot of meaningful games. Miami is off a bye but in week one lost a tough road trip to Maryland (I am in the minority but the Terps uniforms are growing on me). Hurricanes will have Jacory Harris at QB and he just might be the difference maker good or bad. Ohio State has the talent to dominate but there are a ton of questions that no one will know the answer to until the game is being played. Even with all the bad off-field issues these schools went though (and still are going though) this is an excellent match up but I believe Miami needs it more and the Canes get it done. Stanford at Arizona- #6 Stanford has picked up where they left off from 2010 outscoring its first two opponents 101-17 (but remember the schedule will get very difficult in the second half). Arizona beat Northern Arizona as expected in week one but were lit up by Oklahoma State last week. QB Nick Foles is very underrated and will surprise many, as he will keep the Wildcats close. Everyone knows the name Andrew Luck and that makes this game very exciting from the QB position for a west coast contest. Starting 1-0 in conference play is at stake with the loser behind the “eight-ball”. Most would think SU rolls and I would agree they win but Arizona puts up a challenge till the end. Joey Lucci 9/16/2011
Three schools that at 1-0 are primed for a great season Looking like a great 2011 LSU Tigers – The Tigers climb to #2 in the nation after a 40-27 win verse Oregon. LSU trailed 13-9 pulling away with 24 unanswered points. Backup QB Jarrett Lee guided the performance and in my opinion is a better option than Jordan Jefferson. LSU has NFL talent everywhere so the suspensions did not hurt as much as Oregon’s (but even at full strength LSU still comes out ahead). I do have to give major props to my dear friend Hondo Carpenter (owner/creator of SpartanNation.com) who picked the Tigers to win the National Title (I appear on his Michigan state wide/national award winning radio show each week). It will not be easy in the SEC but the Tigers have the talent to run the table and the SEC West just might come down to after a bye on November 5th in Tuscaloosa. Houston Cougars – QB Case Keenum is back and the Cougars jumped over their biggest hurdle of the season beating Pac-12 opponent UCLA. Houston built a 31-14 lead and never trailed behind Keenum. The amazing thing was that Case played in his first game in nearly a year going 30-40 (75%) for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was a little rusty early (as expected) but looked like his old form answering a lot of questions. Houston should be 10-0 when they host SMU in their home finale (Case’s last home game as a Cougar) and then hit the road verse Tulsa. I said it from the beginning, Houston should finish 12-0 and if they win the CUSA Championship game, how are they not ranked in the Top 10? Could be in trouble in 2011 Georgia Bulldogs – Georgia started well verse Boise St as Brandon Boykin ran 80-yards for a 7-0 lead. After that not much went right for the Bulldogs allowing the games next 28 points. Prior to the season Georgia lost its first and second string RB’s and even with the talented QB Aaron Murray the offense did not show much consistence. Georgia could still go on to surprise in the SEC East but their home opener is verse South Carolina this weekend and most likely will determine the division. The schedule is very manageable for an SEC squad but the road trip to Tennessee and the neutral game with Florida now looks like more of a challenge. HC Mark Richt is on a major “hot-seat” and if the Bulldogs start 0-2 there will be a lot of rumors floating around in Athens (and some may be true). TCU Horned Frogs – The Horned Frogs last season in the MWC did not start off well. TCU trailed 47-23 heading into the fourth quarter but took a 48-47 lead with under five minutes. Baylor nailed a 37-yard field goal with a minute to play and TCU’s fate was sealed with an interception. There were two things that surprised me about this game, the 50 points TCU allowed (36 points was the most anyone had scored in the pervious five years!) and the 48 points scored with an offence returning just three starters including a first time starting QB. Lets face it there was just one way to go for the Frogs after a 13-0 season but starting 0-2 is a high possibility. HC Gary Patterson is still one of (if not) the best coaches in the nation and when its all said and done TCU looks like an 8 to 9 win team (next season expect that yearly BCS bowl bid playing in the Big East). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I wanted to take this time and put college football aside to reflect upon what happened ten years ago. The tragic events of 9/11 will forever be a memory burned into Americans’ minds. We should never forget the pain, devastation and sorrow this horrific event caused. I am sure each of us can remember the exact location we were at when we heard of the first plane hitting the World Trade Center. If you were like me, you were captivated by the news coverage for days following the event. I cannot thank the first responders enough for their brave efforts in the uncertain times after the attack. To the friends and family members that lost a loved one, I cannot even imagine the pain you felt and continue to live with. Finally for all who paid the ultimate sacrifice, you are missed and you’ll never be forgotten. Let’s make it a point to acknowledge that we are all privileged to live in such a great country – God Bless America! Joey Lucci 9/9/2011
Check out all the past blogs in the archive section (under the new blog)
College Football Week One (FINAL!!!) by Joey Lucci Well it’s here, the start of another great College Football season! All the talk and speculation goes right out the window. Things will be settled on the field with a lot of pride and emotion at stake. The season kicks off on Thursday September 1st with fifteen games and week one takes us through Labor Day. Enjoy this exciting weekend, below are some of the key games you might want to keep an eye on (but if you are like me every match up is exciting!)……………… Thursday September 1st North Texas at FIU – Let the North Texas Dan McCarney era begin. FIU just started playing football in 2002 and are coming off their first bowl in school history. I like the Mean Green to pull the upset. UNLV at Wisconsin – If you read my Top Ten blog, than you understand how strong I feel about the Badgers this year. I am looking for an opening night blowout at Camp Randall. Wake Forest at Syracuse – The Orange moved this game from Saturday so fans could enjoy the full holiday weekend and I think it was smart. A win will go a long way for Syracuse to bowl for a second straight year (first since 1998 and 1999). Bowling Green at Idaho – This is a rematch of one of the best bowl games I ever watched (’09 Humanitarian Bowl, Idaho won 43-42). If it is half as exciting this game may surprise you. Friday September 2nd Saturday September 3rd Utah State at Auburn – Since 1999 the National Champ from the previous year is 12-0 with an average win of 45-11 in the season opener (one TD allowed the last four years and none last two seasons). Tigers should win big but if they struggle it might be a longer year than anticipated. Kent State at Alabama – Alabama HC Nick Saban was a 1973 Kent St graduate and should guide the Crimson Tide to an easy opener. Western Michigan at Michigan – Could there be an upset at the Big House? Michigan is getting better and the Hoke era begins but the Broncos are a veteran bunch that are capable. UCLA at Houston – This just might be the most difficult game on the Cougars schedule in 2011. They have two good things, it is at home and QB Case Keenum is healthy! BYU at Mississippi – Ole Miss HC Houston Nutt is on a major “hot-seat” and can’t afford another losing season. A win at home and the Rebels could start 3-0 but BYU (Independent status) has talented QB Jake Heaps and come in with five straight winning seasons. San Jose State at Stanford – QB Andrew Luck should post some big numbers and make a strong case right off the bat for the Heisman but it is the Spartans, lets see what happens after November. Williams & Mary at Virginia – Virginia HC Mike London won a National Title with the FCS Richmond Spiders and is familiar with the Tribe. If William & Mary wins I would not make a huge deal about it. East Carolina vs. South Carolina – South Carolina has the best RB/WR combo in all of college football (Lattimore/Jeffery) and QB Stephen Garcia seems to have put the past behind him. East Carolina will have problems stopping the Gamecocks but the Pirates can score with anyone. Florida Atlantic at Florida – This is a game of one coach ending his run and one coach beginning his. Time to say good-bye to Owl HC Howard Schnellenberger and hello to the Gators Will Muschamp. Northern Iowa at Iowa State – Iowa State could struggle in this game that may surprise some but Northern Iowa is a solid FCS squad and a two TD win could happen. Eastern Washington at Washington – Eastern Washington won the FCS National Title last year and the Cougars are in the post Locker era. Huskies should still take care of business. Check out the red field at Eastern Washington (like the Boise St blue). Tulsa at Oklahoma – Are the Sooners the most talented team in all of college football? A nice test for the OU defense will be underrated Tulsa QB GJ Kinne. Oklahoma will past the test as Tulsa breaks in a new coaching staff against one of the most experienced. Oregon vs. LSU – This is most likely the most anticipated game of the weekend. Oregon has some suspensions and LSU has their off-field problems as well. A nice neutral site game at the “Jerry Dome” has me leaning with the SEC. Boise St vs. Georgia – If Boise St loses then kiss a National Title shot goodbye, a win and most likely a 12-0 season. I guess early college football games don’t mean anything? Remember the 2005 opener (UGA won 48-13 in Athens), well this will be a lot closer in Atlanta. Rice at Texas – Texas has a lot to prove coming off a 5-7 season. I feel sorry for the Owls as they are going to resemble a punching bag rather than a football team in this opener. Sunday September 4th Monday September 5th Joey Lucci 8/26/2011 and 9/2/2011
The State of College Football by Joey Lucci I just woke up and headed downstairs to get a quick workout in. After that I jumped in the shower and got a cup of coffee. Settling into my office chair I turned on the computer and what is the first headline, another off-field problem in college football. What in the world is going on? I can’t help but think this is got to catch up to the integrity of the game. How much more bad news can the college football world take? How can these schools not learn from one another? Are there any more on the horizon? I actually got up and had to clear my head for a moment……………..Sitting back down I realized that a lot of people might be feeling the same way I am, surprised, shocked, frustrated and confused. In 1987 and 1988 SMU went through the “Death Penalty”. The Mustangs were banned from football and prior to the sentence they had seven straight winning seasons going a combined 61-19-1. After the ban SMU went 2-9, 1-10 and 1-10 the following three years. They suffered eight straight losing seasons and it took the Mustangs 21 years to match the 61 wins the seven seasons prior. HC June Jones has got the program moving in the right direction coming off back-two-back bowl seasons for the first time since the “Death Penalty”. It took nearly 20 years for the SMU program to escape this. Over the recent years a lot of negative press has been connected with college football and it seems like when we think it can’t get any worse, it does. How about the USC ban, no bowl games for two seasons and scholarships lost, was that trumped by Auburn? Cam Newton was heading to Mississippi St until a 7-day visit. I still feel very strongly that there will be a lot more on this down the road. Jim Tressel and the Ohio St University may have stolen the press from Auburn for the moment as he lied about playing ineligible athletes and a whole lot more. There have been other schools tucked in along the way and most of us probably thought it couldn’t get any worse. In no way am I saying that the infractions listed above should be excused but does the Miami University scandal out due them all? It might be hard to imagine, but this could go down as the worst thing to happen in college football since the “Death Penalty”. Before I over-react like a lot of the media does we need to understand a couple of things. First, did Miami University know about what was going on? The reason I say this is because they as a university can only control so much. The NCAA can’t control outside boosters unfortunately, as it’s a free market. What they can control is the administrative staff, coaches and athletes. Did they knowingly let this Nevin Shapiro influence the University with his donations? I also want to stress this is a convicted felon who for all intense purposes might do anything to save himself. This is not only a critical time for Miami but also college football. I would like to point out that HC Al Golden is in a position that no one envies. No way Al Golden would have took the Miami job if he knew of the scandal prior. He not only will have a tough time keeping his players focused but also will have the tall order of fixing the mess the school has gotten themselves in. I would like to think that in a couple of months when the season is in full swing all the infractions from the past will be forgotten but I would be lying. It’s almost like we are putting a band-aid over a cut that needs multiply stitches, it might stop bleeding for a short time but sooner or later it will open up again. Who is the next program that will go down? I use to think that most of the infractions were no big deal and that it was just a small mistake that anyone could have made given the coaches or athletes position. I sadly now realize that college football will see dark days ahead and most likely will get worse before it gets better. All we can do now I guess is enjoy the season and try to remember what is so good about college football; rivalry’s, traditions, tailgating, waking up on a Saturday morning with that feeling we are winning today and just knowing for that brief moment the college football world is right…………………… Joey Lucci 8/19/2011
The Coaches’ Poll, Overrated/Underrated There is just 20 days left before the start of College Football and that can only mean one thing, the Coaches’ Poll, ranking the top 25 programs. This list alone will keep a lot of us talking till opening kickoff. What teams are ranked too high or surprisingly not ranked? I believe that being ranked at the beginning of the season is all well and good but it’s where you are after the Army/Navy game that matters! If you checked out my blog at Spadoraonsports.com on 7/15/2011, I put out Lucci’s Top Ten (remember that is what I think after the regular season) and am pleased to see eight in the top ten of the Coaches’ Poll. Stanford at #6 and Oklahoma St at #8 are the only two that I didn’t have in the poll’s top ten. I went with South Carolina, who came in #12, and Houston, who was not ranked. Below are lists of five schools that are ranked to start the year that most likely will be out of the Top 25 (or Top 10) and five that are not ranked that may surprise when it’s all said and done. Overrated (Schools ranked to start that will be out of Top 25 or at least out of Top 10) Auburn at #19 – For starters every road game is against the SEC elite (South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU & Georgia) and the road non-conference game with Clemson is tough. With a brutal schedule, a lot of inexperience and heat from some off-field issues I really can see a 5-7 or 6-6 at best season. Mississippi St at #20 – I love what HC Dan Mullen is doing in Starkville and I think that the Bulldogs are talented and bowl for a second straight year but are they going to catch the breaks like in 2010? Mississippi St looks like a 7-5 bunch in 2011. Missouri at #21 – Missouri has a ton of skilled players back but must replace QB Blaine Gabbert. The defense also losses six of its top nine tacklers. Throw that into the mix with road trips to Arizona St, Oklahoma and A&M and it doesn’t bold well for a double-digit win season like in 2010. Stanford at #6 – When the Cardinal are 7-0 and ranked in the Top 5 you might be thinking what?, but wait! The last part of 2011 is brutal and now that young OL will be tested. Don’t get me wrong, Andrew Luck is the best QB in the NCAA but even with that talent Stanford doesn’t end 2011 on a high note. Oklahoma St at #8 – Offensively the Cowboys can play with anybody in the nation but my concern lies with the defense (OC Dana Holgorsen also left for WV). Not only do they have tough road trips to A&M, Texas and Texas Tech but must host Oklahoma. Although talented I can’t see a double-digit win season
Underrated (Schools not ranked to start that might be after the regular season) USF – The Bulls are my pick to win the Big East and get their first taste of a BCS bowl. HC Skip Holtz will likely lead USF to double-digit wins even with an opening emotional loss in South Bend. The Bulls should jump into the ranks early November. Houston – All you really have to do is check out 7/15/2011’s blog. I must stress the Cougars have less talent than some teams ranked below them but if they are 13-0 off the CUSA Championship, how do you leave them out of the Top Ten? Northwestern – Dan Persa is the most underrated QB in all of College Football. How valuable is he, just ask any one that has watched a Wildcat game with and without him in the lineup. I think that Northwestern (if healthy) can start 8-0 and flirt with double-digit wins. Tennessee – Last year the Vols won their final four regular season games (schedule was easier), which should spring them into 2011. Tyler Bray is just a sophomore QB and will begin his first full year as a starter. If UT gets an upset at Florida they could start 5-0, have a tough middle and like last year should win a lot in November as the schedule lightens up. Georgia Tech – HC Paul Johnson personally for me is one of my favorites. It started when he was with Navy (I love the triple-option). The offense is very hard to plan for and when run right it almost is unstoppable. He will have to break in a new QB and some RB’s but they host most of the difficult games, pull a upset or two and it could be like ’08 or ’09 for the Yellow Jackets.
Joey Lucci 8/12/2011 Joey Lucci’s 2011 Big East Forecast The Big East Conference since the BCS started in 1998 has always been the bottom feeder conference. Recently even some non-BCS conferences seemed to be more deserving of that automatic BCS bowl bid than the Big East. The Big East is a combined 3-5 in BCS bowls. Of the six BCS conferences there have been 101 appearances with the Big Ten leading the way with 22, SEC with 21, ACC and Big 12 each with 18, Pac-10 (now Pac-12) with 14 and of course the Big East with 8. West Virginia is a perfect 2-0 while Louisville won the 2007 Orange Bowl. Cincinnati is 0-2 while Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Connecticut all come in at 0-1. USF and Rutgers have never played in a BCS bowl. This season the Big East is wide open and a very top-heavy conference. It would not surprise me if any of the top-four listed below take home the 2011 crown and play in the Orange Bowl. It looks like there could be up to five or six bowl eligible teams but some will have to pull an upset or two to get to the postseason. I believe that the Big East in 2011 is ranked #6 among the six BCS conferences (again) but it should be an interesting season nonetheless. Below is the order of how I see the season playing out and as you can see no double digit wins in the regular season and most likely just one to three ranked schools (probably in he #17-#25 range). #1) USF Bulls (6-1, 9-3 overall)…Skip Holtz enters his 2nd season at the helm and has a very talented QB to work with in BJ Daniels (will improve on last years 11-13 ratio). Darrell Scott is a RB that could top 1,000 yards (Colorado transfer). The Bulls defensively might not have the household names but should match the 20 ppg allowed like the past three seasons. USF might start 0-1 with an emotional trip to South Bend but I think the Big East is on the line, Thursday night in Pittsburgh. USF also gets Cincinnati and West Virginia at home. The Bulls will not have to leave the state for the postseason, playing in their first BCS bowl in Miami. #2) Pittsburgh Panthers (6-1, 9-3 overall)…Pitt begins the Todd Graham era with the Big East’s best defense. They also have a veteran QB with RB Ray Graham who doesn’t have to split carries this year. HC Graham has had success at both Rice and Tulsa, which should continue at Pitt, but they do draw USF on a Thursday night in what is the 3rd game of the season’s toughest stretch. The Panthers may start off 2-3 but I see no reason why they can’t run the table the rest of the way. Looks like Pitt might be headed to the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando. #4) West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2, 8-4 overall)…New HC Dana Holgorsen did an excellent job at Oklahoma St as the OC. He also had potent offenses while at Houston and Texas Tech. QB Geno Smith and seven other offensive starters give Holgorsen a lot of experience to work with. The question this season is defensively with just four starters returning. I do like two early winnable games to get the new schemes down with a lot of success mid-season but WV ends 2011 with the Big East’s toughest stretch which is the reason the BBVA Compass Bowl in Alabama looks like a good fit. I can’t see a double-digit win season this year but 2012 looks like the 11-win teams from 2005-’07. #5) Connecticut Huskies (2-5, 6-6 overall)…Paul Pasqualoni is back as a HC! It will be very hard for the Huskies to match last years BCS bowl bid season. Pasqualoni has a new QB under center and has to replace RB Jordan Todman. Connecticut should be just as good defensively with nine starters back. If the Huskies are going to make it five straight bowls, wins almost certainly have to come in non-conference games vs. Iowa St and Western Michigan (I have both as toss-ups) but both are at home (21-4 at Rentschler Field the last four years). Six wins and it looks like the Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowl in Florida for the Huskies. #8) Louisville Cardinals (1-6, 4-8 overall)…HC Charlie Strong took Louisville to the postseason in his first year at the helm. Things look tough in 2011 for back-to-back bowl appearances. The Cardinals have just 10 returning starters (lowest in Big East), must find a new QB but most importantly on offense have FOUR starters on the OL to replace. Louisville does have 7 defensive starters returning but with an inexperienced offense might be on the field more. Louisville could start 3-1 (maybe even 4-2) but finding three more wins might be difficult (three of their last 4 games are all on the road). Louisville will have a rebuilding 2011 but HC Strong has this team headed in the right direction. Joey Lucci 8/5/2011
#10) NCAA finds no violations of any kind in college football – I hope you know that I am not serious; I guess the only question is who is the next program to either escape or go down? Let’s face it once the games start to play we kind of put this in the backseat. #9) The top non-AQ conference is……CUSA? – The MWC might have some competition this season as the best non-AQ even with the addition of Boise St. In years past, the play in MWC action may have been better than the Big East. If you take the top three MWC teams (Boise St, TCU & Air Force) and compare it with the CUSA top three (Houston, Southern Miss & Tulsa) the MWC might be slightly better. Where I feel the talent separates is when you take the top three out. Colorado St should be improved but San Diego St, Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV are most likely not heading to a bowl. UCF, SMU, East Carolina, UAB and Rice have a better shot at the post season (I took out Tulane, UTEP, Marshall & Memphis to make the conferences even). CUSA also has a Championship game and this year could see a 12-0 Houston versus a 12-0 Southern Miss. The MWC will have success this year but it is top heavy while CUSA is all around solid one though eight. #8) First year head coaches that could make an immediate impact – There are 22 new head coaches in 2011 among the 120 schools. Of the 22, fourteen will be making their FBS HC debut. Below is a list in order of the first year head coaches that could make an immediate impact. Usually you see a lot of new faces at the helm in the Sun Belt and MAC conferences and this season is no exception. North Texas HC Dan McCarney is a unique story as he was with Iowa St prior (normally other way around). Todd Graham of Pittsburgh - Might just be in a BCS bowl Al Golden of Miami, FL - Look what he did at Temple, better talent Luke Fickel of Ohio St - There is still a ton of talent David Shaw of Stanford - QB Andrew Luck to work with Will Muschamp of Florida - A lot of speed and hey it’s the SEC Brady Hoke of Michigan - Heading in the right direction Bill Blankenship of Tulsa - QB GJ Kinne is very underrated Steve Addazio of Temple - Solid run game to work with Dan McCarney of North Texas - A lot of experience, new stadium
#7) Some FCS (1AA) programs that have a shot at beating a BCS school – These wins headline every paper, television and internet story nation wide. No one will ever forget Appalachian St in ’07 beating Michigan in Ann Arbor and most recently with Jacksonville St’s 49-48 2OT win at Mississippi last year. Most of the time when a FCS school plays a BCS team it’s for a paycheck and the scores get out-of-hand but sometimes the amazing happens (right Michigan and Ole Miss?). Below is a list of FCS schools that could surprise a FBS opponent in 2011 (strongest possibilities listed first). Murray St at Louisville (September 1st, Thursday Night, week one) Northern Iowa at Iowa St (September 3rd, Saturday, week one) William & Mary at Virginia (September 3rd, Saturday, week one) Richmond at Duke (September 3rd, Saturday, week one) James Madison at North Carolina (September 3rd, Saturday, week one) McNeese St at Kansas (September 3rd, Saturday, week one) North Dakota St at Minnesota (September 24th, Saturday, week four)
#6) Northwestern FINALLY wins a Bowl – When was the last time that Northwestern won a bowl? How about January 1st 1949! That is right, the Rose Bowl were they defeated California 20-14. Normally this university dishes out actors/actress and journalists but this season the football team gets over the bowl draught. The Wildcats are 1-8 all-time in the post season but all eight loses are after 1996. Northwestern has had some solid teams as of late but this year might flirt with double-digit wins. QB Dan Persa is one of the most underrated players not only in the Big Ten but the entire NCAA. HC Pat Fitzgerald has done a tremendous job taking over an emotional squad in 2006 and molding these Wildcats like himself. Outside of Nebraska and Michigan St every other game is in the winnable category (they also avoid Ohio St and Wisconsin). Northwestern should have its best record under HC Fitzgerald in 2011 and FINALLY get that bowl win! #5) Texas wins 10+ games this season after a dismal 5-7 – This might be what Auburn fan goes through next season. Texas is too talented and last year was a fluke. Everything just kind of snowballed starting with the loss of the NCAA’s all-time winning QB. HC Mack Brown prior to last season had won 9+ in his first 12 years at the helm and 10+ from 2001-’09. He also took Texas to two National Titles and won it all in 2005. In no way will Texas have a repeat of 2011 and I will call for double the amount of wins as HC Brown gets his team refocused taking nothing for granted. #4) Boise St plays for a National Championship (first non-AQ school in BCS history) – We have been talking about this for some time but when it (or it) happens I still feel there will be a surprise. Boise St again will open the season with a “neutral” site elimination game and host both TCU and Air Force (biggest tests of year). Since they are 32-0 at home under HC Peterson and have the experience of beating Virginia Tech last season a 12-0 year is very possible (even with the conference switch). Only a one-loss SEC school or unbeaten BCS conference team should trump a Boise St undefeated squad for a title shot. If Boise St runs the table in 2011 that will make it four times in the last six regular seasons (time to give this non-AQ university a chance). #3) Stanford QB Andrew Luck doesn’t win the Heisman (maybe not even top two) – Before we begin with why I see no Heisman for Luck in 2011, I just want to clear something up. Andrew Luck is the most talented QB in the NCAA and will be the #1 overall pick in the NFL. Now lets go into why no Heisman. First the Heisman Trophy as much as it’s an individual honor it’s also a team award. You must have team success to get the voters attention and when that doesn’t happen you fade (like Denard Robinson last year). Stanford did finish ranked #4 in 2011 and could open 7-0 but the last part of the schedule is a nightmare especially with a less experienced OL and some new receiving weapons. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones most likely will post better numbers and there is also Alabama RB Trent Richardson who will not have to split carries. Others that will be posting numbers and playing for contenders are Boise St QB Kellen Moore, Oregon RB LaMichael James and South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore. #2) SEC National Title streak stops at FIVE - For some especially in SEC country this is a bigger surprise. Oklahoma is loaded in the Big 12 with no glaring weaknesses and they get the advantage of not playing in a conference championship. How about if a Big Ten school goes undefeated and wins 13? Florida St and Virginia Tech are legitimate title contenders out of the ACC. The Pac-12 should be led by Oregon and they could be a LSU win away from a 13-0 regular season (after Pac-12 Championship). A Big East contender, lets move on, but how about #4 on this list, Boise St? Lets face it, the SEC can’t win every National Title no matter what they say down south but if there was ever a season the streak snaps it will be in 2011. #1) Auburn goes from National Champs to missing a Bowl, WHAT? - You might want to look away if you are an Auburn fan. Some might even be thinking how this is even possible? Not only does Auburn play in the toughest conference in college football but also the toughest division. The Tigers schedule was set up perfect last season but this year its one of the nation’s most difficult. Every road game is against the SEC elite (South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU & Georgia) and the trip to Clemson doesn’t do them any favors (Inexperienced QB in first road start). I will give you Utah St, FAU, Ole Miss and Samford but Mississippi St and Florida are tossups. With just this brutal schedule alone, I see 5-7. Auburn has just six returning starters and just 55% of their overall lettermen retuning. They do have some solid rushers back but arguably lost the best offensive and defensive players from last season. Another interesting fact is that the Tigers had six games (including the BCS Championship) were they won by a combined total of 20 points (3 ppg)! With all this taken into consideration I don’t believe there will be a long dry spell but just one in 2011. Joey Lucci ____________________________ 1. Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC; West 13-0) 2. Oklahoma Sooners (Big 12, 12-0) 3. Wisconsin Badgers (Big 10; Leaders, 13-0) 4. LSU Tigers (SEC; West, 11-1, only loss at Alabama) 5. Boise St Broncos (MWC, 12-0) 6. Oregon Ducks (Pac-12; 12-1, only loss vs. LSU in Arlington) 7. South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC; East, 12-1, only loss vs. Alabama in SEC title) 8. Florida St Seminoles (ACC; Atlantic, 12-1, only loss vs. Oklahoma) 9. Texas A&M Aggies (Big 12, 11-1, only loss at Oklahoma) 10. Houston Cougars (CUSA; West, 13-0) Joey Lucci __________________________ A John Mackey Tribute While sitting in my office I happen to glance up at a signed photo of John Mackey in his Baltimore Colts uniform. I have had this framed photo for over seven years and its one of my favorite sports memorabilia items, something I will never part ways with. I start to wonder what it must have been like to play in his day. Mackey was a physical player that played the game the only way he knew how, the right way. I will admit when he was blowing up defenses, catching TD passes and being part of the winning Super Bowl V team (caught a 75-yard TD pass from Johnny Unitas to get the Colts on the board) I was not even born. In fact I never met John Mackey but found myself very upset and saddened by his passing. You see I have been involved in the John Mackey Award committee for a while and was privileged to receiving constant updates on his condition. Right away I could not help but feel for Sylvia, John’s wife, what she must be going through is unimaginable. The way John Mackey sacrificed on the field came at a price. He suffered from frontotemporal dementia. This basically causes you to shut down slowly. I never had the chance to meet Sylvia, but wow what a strong women! She was by John’s side as he struggled with this horrible disease and now she grieves for her husband’s death. My thoughts and prayers are with the whole Mackey family. I believe that we all grieve differently in times like these but what I also believe is that God chooses his children when it’s His time and not ours. We can question death but God needed John more, who knows maybe to start on His team. John Mackey wasn’t able to do a lot of things we take for granted in his late stages of life but I feel he is up above as vibrant as ever feeling no pain. I hope comfort finds the Mackey family during this tragic time. The world has lost a great one, may John rest in peace. I have been working with the John Mackey Award Committee for a while and have seen it growth each and every year. I feel honored in helping to decide college football’s best tight end. Each week I speak with Bryan Revello of the Nassau County Sports Commission during the season and discuss a tight end of the week winner. You can view the winners at www.nassausports.org. Brian has become a very good friend of mine through the years and basically heads up the entire John Mackey Award Committee. After the season it’s narrowed to the “Final 8”. The three semi-finalists are announced after that and then the winner of this prestigious award is announced on national television. In my time with the committee I have learned what John Mackey meant to football and maybe more importantly what John Mackey meant to the ones around him. I now more than ever am very honored in helping give this award out and during my time with the committee will do it the right way just as John Mackey himself did on and off the filed. Joey Lucci ___________________ PLAYOFFS vs. BOWLS For a while most college football fans and analysts have an opinion one way or another on this subject. I feel that a full playoff system involving multiple schools in numbers of 32,16 and even 8 would hurt college football. It works for college basketball as March Madness is one of the best sporting events of the year. One think that separates college football is the regular season. National title elimination games are being played on a weekly basis. Lets look at some this season in week one, how about LSU vs. Oregon in Arlington, Georgia vs. Boise St in Atlanta (no way a one loss non-AQ school plays for the title) and in week three Oklahoma at Florida St. These are just some early season match ups not to mention all the great conference rivals. If we go with a 16-team playoff than a lot of these great games lose something in the regular season. How about Bedlam when Oklahoma plays Oklahoma St, which splits families apart in Norman and Stillwater (in a joking way I hope). These schools played last season ranked #14 and #10, does it matter who wins if they both are just going to be in a playoff system a week later? Lets keep the tradition of college football alive during the regular season, keep the bowls, which are great for both schools and businesses but decide the National Champ on the field. I believe that a 4+ method would work well. It would allow teams ranked #1 and #2 in the BCS a bye, kind of a reward for a successful regular season and also gives the non-AQ schools a chance. All games would be at neutral sites and could be in a bowl game venue (maybe “round one” later December and the “final four” on new years day and the title game a week later). I would be hard pressed to think it’s a perfect system but whatever the college football world decides there will always be some who like it and others who wont. Below are some examples of how this could of played out the last three seasons in the 4+ method. 2008 would have had #1 Oklahoma 12-1 and #2 Florida 12-1 earning byes. #6 Utah 12-0 would have faced #3 Texas 11-1 and the other first round game would have been #5 USC 11-1 vs. #4 Alabama 12-1. Utah was the only school to go undefeated that season and this 4+ method would have gave them a shot. If Utah beats Texas and than knocks off #1 Oklahoma who could argue that the Utes deserve a title opportunity. 2009 was a perfect example of the 4+ method as #1 Alabama and #2 Texas (both 13-0) would get byes. #6 Boise St 13-0 would have played #3 Cincinnati 12-0 and #5 Florida 12-1 would have squared off vs. #4 TCU 12-0. NO OTHER school in the country that season had fewer than two losses than the schools above, a perfect 4+ method! How exciting if Boise St and TCU won and got a chance and even Cincinnati gets a title shot (rare for Big East team). Last year the 4+ system would not have been as effective but again #3 TCU at 12-0 would have been given a chance. #1 Auburn 13-0 and #2 Oregon 12-0 get the byes. #6 Ohio St 11-1 would have played #3 TCU and #5 Stanford would have played #4 Wisconsin 11-1. From the examples above it’s not a perfect system but nothing ever will be but I feel this gives everyone an advantage and most importantly settles a true National Champ on the field! Joey Lucci When you talk Kansas St the name Bill Snyder goes hand-in-hand like when you mention Penn St, JoePa comes to mind. Snyder is credited with the “greatest turnaround in college football history” as he inherited a team that had gone 0-21-1 the previous 2-years. Snyder began coaching in 1989 and he did finish just 1-10 his first season but Kansas St’s lone win snapped a NCAA worst 30 games with out a victory. By 1993 the Wildcats were a powerhouse and he helped them post 11-win seasons in a span of 6 of 7-years from 1997-2003. He “retired” in 2005 but missed coaching so much rejoined Kansas St in 2009. At age 71 Snyder stills loves to coach but admits that family is more important and that “family” atmosphere is what Kansas St is all about (home field was named Bill Snyder Family Stadium after he “retired”). Kansas St finished with a 7-5 record but did start the year 5-1 before becoming bowl eligible with an upset of Texas. The Wildcats used two starting QB’s in Carson Coffman and Collin Klein. Coffman has had his struggles this season and Snyder used both QB’s the final 3 games (Klein is more mobile). The person that makes the Wildcat offense go is RB Daniel Thomas who had 1,495 rush yards this season and 16 TD’s. He is 38% of the entire unit and has also tossed a TD pass off the RB option. When Thomas has rushed for under 100 yards Kansas St is 2-3 and when he goes over 100, 5-2. The magic rush number will be 140, as Thomas is a perfect 4-0 when rushing for that or more. The receivers really don’t posses a threat as the offensive is a definite run-first group. Defensively the Wildcats come in at #106 in the nation. What a job Doug Marrone has done with the Syracuse program. Lets face it when Paul Pasqualoni left many Orange fans where questioning the decision and all Greg Robinson did was extend the bowl draught. Marrone is a Syracuse alumnus that started in 2009 and in just his second year at the helm has Syracuse bowling (normal first year head coaches need 3-4 years). Marrone came over from the New Orleans coaching tree under Super Bowl Champion Sean Payton. He ruffled some feathers when he first showed up getting rid of the “bad seeds” and enforcing rules that had to be followed but this was so he could build a program the right way. Basically if you are not with us your against us. Four wins that first year matched the most in the last 4-years prior and 2010 was an even better year at 7-5. I said it when Marrone was hired he is the right fit for the Syracuse job. Syracuse started 2010 on fire and found themselves at 6-2 with road wins at USF, West Virginia and Cincinnati (very impressive). On November 13th in New Jersey the Orange became bowl eligible with a 7th win (needed 7 and not 6 because faced two FCS programs). Ryan Nassib had a decent season managing the offense but unlike Kansas St QB Klein is not anywhere near as mobile. The ground game has been the key as Delone Cater and Antwon Bailey form a very underrated 1-2 punch (combined 1,539 yards and 9 TD’s). When a SU RB has gone over 100 yards they are 3-1 (4-4 under). Syracuse much like Kansas St would prefer to run the ball so the receiving unit is average. Syracuse defensively comes in at #5 and has been very impressive keeping the Orange in a lot of games. It is interesting to note that Syracuse has won three Big East games this season and the offense has scored no more than 19 in any one of them. The Pinstripe Bowl is in the first year of existence being played at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY. Syracuse could not have had a better fit for a bowl than this in-state one and should be well represented. Kansas St obviously has to travel a greater distance but could be excited because they are bowling for the first time since 2006. This bowl basically comes down to defense and stopping the run. Both schools mirror each other but the difference might be on the defensive side where Syracuse has played better. On offense SU is ranked #106 and K-St comes in at #62 but the above defensive numbers are a huge disparity. Syracuse should be able to stop Thomas and if that happens they will make the Wildcat offense very uncomfortable while they have the solid 1-2 punch. Kansas St has struggled on the road this year going 1-3 vs. BCS schools while Syracuse went 5-1 away from the Carrier Dome including a perfect 4-0 in Big East play. I would not worry about the late season struggles as SU is still a young squad and Marrone will get their attention in bowl practices. The Orange will prevail in a very low scoring contest and take home the first ever Pinstripe Bowl. BCS Bowls: TCU HC Gary Patterson is 36-3 the LAST THREE SEASONS! Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Stanford Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Ohio St BCS Title: Oregon vs. Auburn Joey Lucci A John Mackey Tribute While sitting in my office I happen to glance up at a signed photo of John Mackey in his Baltimore Colts uniform. I have had this framed photo for over seven years and its one of my favorite sports memorabilia items, something I will never part ways with. I start to wonder what it must have been like to play in his day. Mackey was a physical player that played the game the only way he knew how, the right way. I will admit when he was blowing up defenses, catching TD passes and being part of the winning Super Bowl V team (caught a 75-yard TD pass from Johnny Unitas to get the Colts on the board) I was not even born. In fact I never met John Mackey but found myself very upset and saddened by his passing. You see I have been involved in the John Mackey Award committee for a while and was privileged to receiving constant updates on his condition. Right away I could not help but feel for Sylvia, John’s wife, what she must be going through is unimaginable. The way John Mackey sacrificed on the field came at a price. He suffered from frontotemporal dementia. This basically causes you to shut down slowly. I never had the chance to meet Sylvia, but wow what a strong women! She was by John’s side as he struggled with this horrible disease and now she grieves for her husband’s death. My thoughts and prayers are with the whole Mackey family. I believe that we all grieve differently in times like these but what I also believe is that God chooses his children when it’s His time and not ours. We can question death but God needed John more, who knows maybe to start on His team. John Mackey wasn’t able to do a lot of things we take for granted in his late stages of life but I feel he is up above as vibrant as ever feeling no pain. I hope comfort finds the Mackey family during this tragic time. The world has lost a great one, may John rest in peace. I have been working with the John Mackey Award Committee for a while and have seen it growth each and every year. I feel honored in helping to decide college football’s best tight end. Each week I speak with Bryan Revello of the Nassau County Sports Commission during the season and discuss a tight end of the week winner. You can view the winners at www.nassausports.org. Brian has become a very good friend of mine through the years and basically heads up the entire John Mackey Award Committee. After the season it’s narrowed to the “Final 8”. The three semi-finalists are announced after that and then the winner of this prestigious award is announced on national television. In my time with the committee I have learned what John Mackey meant to football and maybe more importantly what John Mackey meant to the ones around him. I now more than ever am very honored in helping give this award out and during my time with the committee will do it the right way just as John Mackey himself did on and off the filed. Joey Lucci
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